Predicting the election: Opinium Research and the Daily Express
Challenge:
- The General Election provides a rare opportunity for research
agencies to be at the forefront of the biggest news story of the
year. Traditionally, voter intention polls have been dominated by
YouGov, ICM, Populus and Comres who have utilised exclusive partnerships
with national newspapers to publish their results.
- Opinium’s challenge was to gain leverage in this crowded
market place and put its voter intention poll on the political map;
positioning Opinium as a heavy weight in political polling and raise
awareness of the brand in national and influential online media.
Solution:
- The leading political pollsters all have exclusive media partnerships
making it very difficult for another research agency to get cut
through with its own polls. Our recommendation was to identify a
publication that did not have a partnership (the Daily Express),
arrange a meeting with the political editor and put the Opinium
proposition to them.
- As voter intent is such an important poll in the run up to the
election, it was crucial to show the Daily Express that Opinium’s
methodology would stand up to scrutiny. As part of this we recommended
Opinium join the British Polling Council and utilise its relationship
with Dr. Michael Bruter, LSE, who assisted Opinium in devising the
methodology.
- Finally, we suggested offering the Daily Express the option to
ask additional research questions to support any other political
stories they had planned. This would provide Opinium with additional
cut through in the Daily Express and provide a platform to approach
other the Daily Express desks about a partnership after the election.
Implementation:
- Having identified the Daily Express, we approached its political
editor to set up a meeting with Opinium where it was agreed they
would run the voter intention polls on an exclusive weekly basis
and additional questions would be offered on a monthly basis for
supplementary the Daily Express stories.
- It was also agreed that the Daily Express would publish the Opinium
logo alongside the weekly polls, providing additional high value
branding for Opinium.
- To support the the Daily Express coverage, the weekly polls were
distributed to all national and broadcast political desks as well
as influential political bloggers. We also worked up a list of influential
Twitter users for Opinium to follow in order to boost their online
profile and put them in direct contact with senior and influential
people in the political arena.
Outcome:
- The poll featured prominently every week in the Daily Express,
which included the logo, and was twice supported by a larger story
that featured the additional research. The poll was picked up by
the Cabinet press office and BBC political unit which requested
to receive it on a regular basis.
- The tactical targeting of Twitter and political blogs also proved
successful with the likes of Tim Montgomerie and Vince Cable following
Opinium and dozens of influential people retweeting the results
to further raise awareness.
- The campaign has achieved: 676 pieces of coverage - National
coverage: 32, Broadcast coverage: 24, Online coverage: 557.

